Guild Size

This was one of the ultimate dilemma's for me.  When I first started being the GM, I didn't sign up for the job.  We were just guys playing WoW and none of us were max level so it didn't really matter.   For the most part, we weren't on at the same time enough or played the same amount of hours to really ever do anything together.  But, that's history.

Once we were leveled to 80 and actually had a chance to even consider raiding it was making sure no one ever had to sit out.  How many people does it take to just raid 10-man.  I knew it was more than 10 because we'd have absences, but then, you face the reality that sometimes you have more than 10 and you can't take everyone.

After time, I realize you have several class of players.

Frequent Attendees - Come to everything they can

Less Frequent - Come about half the time.

Infrequent - Come sometimes

With some stupid made-up math, I figure frequent is about 80-90% attendance, less is 40-50%, and infrequent is 10-20%.

So, our player count is 10 = 0.85 * Frequent + 0.45 * Less + 0.15 * Infrequent.

But, how many of each class of players do you have.  You can't really control this and people move from one group to another.  Without a large enough sampling you can't statistically have a good answer.  I am sure Blizzard has data that could help answer the question, but we have to go on guesses or at least on observance of our guildies.

In my group, about 50% are Frequent, 30% are Less and 20% are Infrequent.

So, if P = total player count...

10 = P * 0.85 * 0.5 + P * 0.3 * 0.45 + P * 0.2 * 0.15
10 = 0.425 * P +  0.135 * P + 0.03 * P
10 = 0.59 P
P = 10 / 0.59 = 17 players guarantees you never have to pug!

Now, if you want, you can argue that this post is a load of crap.  Well, IT IS!

However, as guild manager, it's my job to provide numbers for raids and it's the best I could come up with.  But in the end the reality of it is observation of your guildies.  Yes, it's spying.  But you have to watch when they play.

Next, it's about adding people that fit the category you really want.  Aim for Frequents and you get about half Less Frequents whether you like it or not.